Educated guessing

Every agent would love to have a crystal ball that could tell them where and when their next home sale is going to come.

Now, while that unfortunately is still out of reach (I know… we’re disappointed too), there are certain ways we can guess where that sale might come from.

In today’s second story, we report on a recent Redfin survey that asked homeowners when they planned to sell their home, and then broke those results down by generation.

As you’ll see, there is a big gap between older and younger homeowners. This is the kind of info you can use to build your marketing plan and target future clients.  

It’s far from a crystal ball, but solid info and data can help lead us in the right direction.

With that, we lead you into today’s Blueprint!

– James and David

Housing starts fall to lowest level in 5 years

In May, housing starts fell to their lowest level since May 2020, which was right after the start of the pandemic. Housing starts totaled 1.256 million (SAAR), up 9.8% from April but still down 4.6% year-over-year, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data. Here are other key data points:

• Regional trends were mixed, with housing starts declining in the Northeast and South, but rising in the Midwest and West

• Building permits dropped to 1.393 million (SAAR), down 2.0% from April and down 1.0% from last year.

• Single-family starts edged up to 924,000, up 0.4% month-over-month, but down 7.3% year-over-year.

• New construction prices rose 3.4% year-over-year in April, but fell 3.9% from March.

• Builder incentives are becoming more common, with rising price cuts and concessions, according to the NAHB.

Our take

Builders face a tough environment. Tariffs are pushing material costs higher, immigration policy is tightening labor supply, and demand for new homes is softening as resale inventory climbs. Even with mortgage rates lower than last year, more existing listings are giving buyers options AND leverage. Builders are responding with price cuts (34% in May, 37% in June) and widespread incentives (offered by over 60% of builders). But they’re also pulling back. Permit activity is down, and the development pipeline is slowing. That means while shoppers may find good deals now, new construction could be scarcer and more expensive by this time next year.

The homeowners who are willing to sell

Redfin recently surveyed 4,000 U.S. homeowners to find out when they’d consider selling their homes, and then grouped their answers by generation. The findings are below, along with the generational breakdown by birth year. 

Generation breakdown by birth year:

• Silent Generation (1928-1945)

• Baby Boomers (1946-1964)

• GenXers (1965-1980)

• Millennials/GenZers (1981-1996/1997-2012) 

% of homeowners who say they'll never sell:

• Silent Generation: 45%

• Baby Boomers: 34%

• Gen X: 25%

• Millennials/Gen Z: 21%

% who plan to sell in the next 3–5 years:

• Millennials/Gen Z: 16%

• Gen X: 13%

• Baby Boomers: 11%

• Silent Generation: 8%

% who plan to sell within 3 years:

• Millennials/Gen Z: 17%

• Gen X: 8%

• Baby Boomers: 7%

• Silent Generation: 6%

Our take

There is a stark generational divide in housing mobility. While many older homeowners say they’ll never sell, far fewer Millennials and Gen Z feel the same way. As the data shows, younger homeowners are twice as likely as Boomers to say they’ll sell within the next three years. This provides a significant indication of where future inventory will originate. But don’t view these survey results as set in stone. Attitudes and life circumstances change. Even older homeowners who say they’ll never sell may eventually move as aging makes it harder to live independently or maintain a home.

Metros with the largest ROIs on home flips

In Q1 2025, the median flipped home sold for $325,000, netting a 25% return on investment (ROI) and a $65,000 gross profit over the $250,000 median purchase price. But margins are tightening. ROI dropped from the prior quarter in 45.7% of the 173 metro areas ATTOM analyzed, and dropped year-over-year in 63% of those areas.

Here’s where home flippers earned the biggest and smallest returns, among metros with 1M+ people:

Our take

ATTOM’s latest report is packed with insights, but one trend jumps off the page: Texas metros are standing out for the wrong reasons. Despite strong population growth and economic momentum, Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio all ranked among the bottom five for ROI on home flips. That points to overheated prices, rising renovation costs, or too much investor competition squeezing margins. Meanwhile, Rust Belt cities like Buffalo and Pittsburgh are delivering the highest returns, even in a cooling market, thanks to low entry prices and room to add value. For investors, the message is clear: in today’s climate, chasing appreciation in boomtowns (outside of Memphis) may no longer beat creating value in overlooked metros.

The news that just missed the cut

• The ultra-wealthy are building $100M+ megamansions now

• Use this open house plan to get more clients 

• The U.S. added 1000 new millionaires a day in 2024

• Palm Beach real estate wealth boom keeps chugging along

• eXp pays its agents in 14 minutes!

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

We are in the middle of our series on tackling the challenge of stale listings. In our first installment, we shared strategies to help your listing stand out from day one. In Part Two, we shared three actionable tips to help breathe new life into a home that’s been sitting for a while. Today, in Part Three, we give you three more tips to revive a stale listing. 

Film a walkthrough video – Give buyers a reason to see your listing with fresh eyes by filming a simple video walkthrough. According to NAR, one in four buyers values video as a key feature on listing sites. Start at the exterior, walk through the front door, and guide viewers room by room to the backyard. Record a voiceover describing what they can see, feel, and imagine doing in the home. You can hire a professional videographer, but honestly, you don’t need fancy gear–your smartphone and a headset will do. Add polish using free software tools like Canva or CapCut with light background music, transitions, and captions.

Launch a multi-channel marketing blitz – With updated photos and a new video, now’s the time to go big. Promote the listing across all your platforms: social media, email, and search. Use paid ads on Google, Bing, Facebook, and Instagram to boost visibility. Highlight the home in your newsletter and retarget past leads in your CRM. If you want to go even further, you can use tools like Local Expert to target buyers in your ZIP code with dynamic ads. It’s a powerful way to remind local buyers your listing is still available. Just make sure it’s in your marketing budget.

Host an unforgettable open house – This isn’t just another open house; it’s a chance to reintroduce the property with a twist. Start by refreshing your print materials and using checklists like this one to prep. Then, think experientially. Time it around a holiday and add themed touches. Partner with a local business for giveaway bags or raffles. Enlist a friend to serve hors d’oeuvres and bubbly. Small upgrades can make a big impact. Be sure to promote the event via social, CRM, and personal outreach. Adding a bit of exclusivity—like a “VIP hour” for serious buyers—can also help attract more attention. 

Come back next week for our final installments in this series. In the meantime, explore more tips, use these outstanding resources found here, here, and here.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.”— Steve Jobs

Steve Jobs’s words feel especially urgent right now. Hard to believe, but we’re just a week away from the second half of the year. Each day truly is a gift – a chance to live the life that you want. So, let’s seize it. Ruthlessly focus on your goals. Don’t let your past or the fear of being judged distract or paralyze you. Choose to live your life with an integrity that you can be proud of.

– James and David